Awesome

UK PV Forecast Blend

This app is for blending forecast together

The main application (forecast_blend/app.py)

1. Loads different forecasts
2. Blends them together using weights
3. Saves them ready to be used by the api
4. This is done for all GSPs

This was previously done in the API

We always update the ForecastValueLatest table, but we only update the ForecastValue table every 30 minutes

Details

• Note we only blend forecasts if they are made within 6 hours. If all forecasts are older than this, then all forecasts are used.
• The probabilistic forecasts are now blended using the same method as the expected value
• We current take Pvnet, then blend it with PVnet DA. PVnet ECMWF is used as a backup, and final National-xg is a final backup.

  graph TD;
      subgraph App
      S(Start) --> LF
      LF(Load All Forecasts);
      LF --> Filter(Filter Forecasts);
      Filter -->  Blend[Blend \n Expected values];
      Blend --> N4(Blend Probabilistic \n- only for National);
      N4 --> S(Save Forecast)
      S --> F(Finish)
      end
      
      subgraph Blending
    A(All Forecasts);
    W2(Weights);
    A --> SUT(Split unique 'target times' \n and not);
    SUT --> |Unique Target times| B
    SUT --> |Duplicated Target times| C(Loop over each \n target time)
    C --> BW
    W2 --> BW
    BW(Blend using weights) --> SumCheck
    SumCheck{At least one \n forecast available} --> |yes| B
    SumCheck --> |no| Blend2(Blend forecast with \n next set of weights)
    Blend2 --> SumCheck2
    SumCheck2{At least one \n forecast available} --> |yes| B
    SumCheck2 --> |no| BB(Break)
    B(Blended \n Forecast)
    end

Tests

Tests are in the tests folder and can be run using pytest

Might need to

export PYTHONPATH=${PYTHONPATH}:./forecast_blend